برآورد تاریخ کاشت بهینه بر پایۀ تاریخچۀ اقلیمی با استفاده از مدل همانندساز رشد AquaCrop در منطقۀ دشت مغان استان اردبیل

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اکولوژی گیاهان زراعی، گروه زراعت و اصلاح نباتات، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج

2 استاد، گروه زراعت و اصلاح نباتات، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج

3 استاد، گروه مهندسی علوم خاک، دانشکدۀ مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج

4 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد و توسعۀ کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج

چکیده

از مدلAquaCrop  برای برآورد تاریخ کاشت مناسب برای تولید بیشترین عملکرد بر پایۀ تاریخچۀ اقلیمی منطقۀ دشت مغان استفاده شد. برای این منظور با استفاده از داده­های پدیدشناختی (فنولوژیک) هشت گیاه زراعی عمده در دشت مغان، در کنار داده­های اقلیمی سی‌سالۀ این منطقه، پس از واسنجی (کالیبراسیون) مدل، تاریخ کاشت بهینۀ هر محصول تعیین شد. مدل با استفاده از درجۀ روز رشد تجمعی، آستانه­های دمایی فعال و مؤثر و شاخص برداشت محاسباتی، عملکرد هر محصول را محاسبه کرد. ضریب تشخیص، ریشۀ میانگین مربعات خطای نرمال و شاخص تطابق به ترتیب 99/0، 16/29 و 97/0 بود. این آمارها نشان‌دهندۀ کارکرد مناسب مدل در برآورد عملکرد محصولات عمدۀ زراعی در منطقه است. بر پایۀ نتایج، بازۀ کاشت همانند­سازی‌شده برای گندم پاییزه کوتاه­تر بود. محصول جو پاییزه نیز از روند همسانی با گندم پاییزه پیروی می­کرد. بازۀ کاشت ذرت بهاره درازمدت­تر از بازۀ معمول منطقه بود، اما بازۀ کاشت همانند­سازی‌شده در کلزا پاییزه، پنبه، سویا و ذرت کشت دوم همسان با بازۀ کشت منطقه بود. همچنین نیاز آبی گیاهان باغی مختلف در تاریخ کاشت­های تعیین‌شده نیز توسط مدل محاسبه شد. این نتایج با خروجی نرم‌افزار NETWAT برای این منطقه مقایسه شد. در این مقایسه ضریب تبیین، 92/0 و ریشۀ میانگین مربعات خطای نرمال‌شده، 07/14 و شاخص تطابق، 99/0 محاسبه شد. بنا بر نتایج، کشت گیاهان پاییزه به‌منظور بهره­مندی هرچه بیشتر از بارندگی­های فصل‌های پاییز و زمستان در منطقه و کاهش مصرف آب آبیاری، باید توجه بیشتر شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Optimum sowing date determination based on historical climate data using AquaCrop growth simulator model in Moghan plain Ardabil province Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Amir Izadfard 1
  • Mohammad Reza Jahansouz 2
  • Fereydoon Sarmadian 3
  • Gholam Reza Peykani 4
  • Mohammad Reza Chaichi 2
1 Ph.D. Student in Crop Ecology, Department of Field Crop Science, University College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
2 Professor, Department of Field Crop Science, University College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
3 Professor, Department of Soil Science, University College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
4 Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics & Agricultural Development, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
چکیده [English]

The AquaCrop model has been used for optimum sowing date determination for maximum yield production based on historical climate data in Moghan plain, Ardabil province, Iran. Based on phonological data for the eight main cultivated crop gathering from Moghan plain and thirty years climate data, the optimum sowing dates were determined after model calibration. The model used cumulative growing degree days, effective and active base temperature and calculated harvest index to perform each crop yield. Determination coefficient, normalized root mean squared and index of agreement were 0.99, 29.16 and 0.97 respectively. The statistics showed that the model could accurately perform the crop yield estimation in this region. Based on the results the simulated sowing window for winter wheat was a little bit shorter. The winter barley also performed as winter wheat. The spring maize simulated sowing window was longer than usual period. But the simulated sowing window for winter canola, cotton, soybean and maize was the same as actual sowing window. The net Irrigation requirement in the determined planting dates have been calculated by the AquaCrop and compared with the NETWAT software outputs. In this Comparison, determination coefficient, normalized root mean squared and index of agreement were 0.92, 14.07 and 0.99 respectively. The results showed the importance of using winter precipitation in crop production in the region and lower water irrigating input using winter cultivation should be noted.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Cumulative growing degree day
  • Sowing window
  • Water Productivity
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