ارزیابی مدل همانند‌سازی و پیش‌بینی عملکرد دانة گیاه لوبیاچیتی (Phaseolus vulgaris L.)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 مربی، مرکز ملی ذخایر ژنتیکی و زیستی ایران (IBRC)، جهاد دانشگاهی (ACECR)

2 استادیار، گروه زراعت، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان

3 کارشناس، تولیدات گیاهی، بانک گیاهی مرکز ملی ذخایر ژنتیکی و زیستی ایران، جهاد دانشگاهی (ACECR)

چکیده

در این پژوهش، برای همانند­سازی و پیش­بینی عملکرد گیاه لوبیاچیتی در شهرستان خمین با استفاده از مدل، تغییرات روزانه مربوط به گذارشناسی (فنولوژی)، مادة خشک، سطح برگ و موازنة آب خاک، از طریق آمار روزانة هواشناسی (دمای کمینه و بیشینه، میزان تابش و بارندگی) و با استفاده از داده­های استانی و داده­های دیگر پژوهشگران در نقاط مختلف جهان، محاسبه شد و عملکرد در پایان فصل پیش­بینی شد. عملکرد مشاهده‌شده دامنة تغییرپذیری 2518 تا 3066 کیلوگرم در هکتار داشت و با میانگین 2832 کیلوگرم در هکتار بود؛ درحالی‌که دامنة تغییرپذیری عملکرد پیش‌بینی‌شده 2260 تا 2780 کیلوگرم در هکتار و میانگین 2643 کیلوگرم در هکتار داشت. مقدار R2، ضریب تغییرپذیری (CV) و جذر میانگین مربعات انحرافات (RMSD) مدل به ترتیب 83 درصد، 6/1 درصد و 205 کیلوگرم در هکتار بود. بنابراین استنباط می­شود که این مدل می­تواند برای پیش­بینی رشد و عملکرد لوبیا در شرایط شهرستان خمین دقت مناسبی داشته باشد. همچنین این امکان وجود دارد تا در صورت فراهم بودن داده­های مربوط به زیرمدل­های نام‌برده و نیز نتایج به‌دست‌آمده از داده­های منطقه­ای مربوط به تراکم و تاریخ­های کشت دیگر گیاهان بذر محصول، بتوان از این مدل، برای همانند­سازی و پیش­بینی رشد و عملکرد آن‌ها استفاده کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluating the simulate and prediction model of chitti bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) grain yield

نویسندگان [English]

  • Elyas Aryakia 1
  • Benjamin Torabi 2
  • Azita Aryakia 3
1 Instructor, Plant bank, Horticultural Sciences, Iranian Biological Resource Center (IBRC), Academic Center for Education, Culture and Research (ACECR), I.R. Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Agronomy, Gorgan university of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Iran
3 Expert, Plant bank, Plant production, Iranian Biological Resource Center (IBRC), Academic Center for Education, Culture and Research (ACECR), I.R. Iran
چکیده [English]

In this study, for simulation and prediction the yield of chitti bean, it is necessary to assess sub models include of phenology, production and dry matter distribution, leaf area changes and equilibrium of water-soil. The sub model parameters were estimated by using information of date plantings, different plant densities and different years at khomein Research Station and data results of Scientists around the world. Using this model, daily changes of sub models were calculated based on daily meteorological statistics (minimum temperature, maximum temperature, radiation and rain) and finally the yield was predicted. The resulting range of observed yield was 2518 to 3066 kg.h-1 with average of 2832 kg.h-1; whereas the resulting range of predicted yield was 2260 to 2870 kg.h-1 with average of 2643 kg.h-1. R2, CV and RMSD were %83, %1.6 and 205 kg.h-1, respectively. Therefore, it can be concluded that this model have appropriate accuracy for prediction of the growth and yield of common bean in khomein. Also it is possible to predict growth and yield responses of other crops if the data of sub models and regional data results of density and planting date of seed crops are available.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Bean
  • Model
  • Phenology
  • simulation
  • yield

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 08 آبان 1393
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 18 مهر 1394
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 13 آبان 1394
  • تاریخ انتشار: 01 آذر 1396

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