نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 گروه زراعت، دانشکده تولیدات گیاهی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران
2 گروه اگروتکنولوژی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران
3 گروه زراعت، دانشکده تولیدات گیاهی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران.
4 بخش تحقیقات چغندرقند، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان همدان، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، همدان، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Climate change and technological development can affect agricultural productivity in the future. Accurately estimating the change in agricultural yield under the influence of climate and technology in the future is an effective approach for management strategies. The aim of this study was to simulate the effects of climate change, technological development, increased carbon dioxide and their combined effects on wheat yield in the future conditions in the country. Wheat yield for three 25-year periods in the future (2026-2050, 2051-2075 and 2076-2100) was simulated compared to the base year (1992-2022) under two scenarios of the CMIP6 model including SSP245 and SSP585. In general, the results of the combined effects of all three factors of climate change, technology, and carbon dioxide showed that in the first period (2026-2050) the combined effects of all factors on wheat yield in most regions were greater than in the base year, while over time and in the third period (2076-2100) the combined effects in all regions led to a decrease in wheat yield compared to the base year. According to the results, it seems that the development of technology and carbon dioxide in the first period and also in some cold regions of the country in the second period had the potential to compensate for the negative effects of climate change, while over time and in the third period the negative effects of climate change increased and led to a decrease in wheat yield, especially in tropical and arid regions.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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