نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 گروه مهندسی تولید و ژنتیک گیاهی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران.
2 گروه مهندسی تولید و ژنتیک گیاهی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، خوزستان، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
This experiment aimed to forecast the yield of various rain fed wheat cultivars under climate change in Khorramabad Province using the APSIM-Wheat sub model.To identify the genetic coefficients of cultivars and parameterize the model, management, soil, plant and climate data from field experiments were utilized. An experiment was conducted experiment was conducted under optimal management conditions and using a randomized complete block design with three treatments and three replications at the research farm of the General Directorate of Meteorology of Lorestan Province located in Khorramabad City during the 2021-2022 growing season. Data from ten selected farms were used to evaluate the model under. The normalized root mean square error was less than 10 percent for seed yield, biological yield, and flowering and maturity stage of the cultivars. Thus, the APSIM model demonstrated excellent quality and acceptable accuracy. In all studied climate periods and scenarios, the grain and biological yield of wheat decrease by 7.3 to 57.0 percent and 2.6 to 27.9 percent, respectively, compared to the base period. In the2061-2080 and the pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5), despite an increase in rainfall, the yield of the increase plants significantly decreased due to rising minimum and maximum temperatures compared to the base period and a reduction in the length of the plant growth period. Therefore, under climate change conditions, farmers and agricultural planners can mitigate the negative effects of climate change the regional production and food supply by making appropriate management decisions, including selecting suitable cultivars.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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