Impacts of increasing CO2 and temperature due to climate change on wheat yield in Khuzestan province: A simulation study

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Former M.Sc. Student, Department of Agroecology, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C., Tehran, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Agroecology, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C., Tehran, Iran

3 Associate Professor, Department of Agroecology, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C., Tehran, Iran


The current study was implemented by using general circulation models (GCMs) aiming at predicting the future climate change as well as its impacts on wheat yield  in seven locations of Khuzestan province including Ahwaz, Dezful, Ezeh, Behbahan, Bandar Mahshahr, Ramhormoz and Omidiye. Accordingly, general circulation model of HadCM3 (United Kingdom Met Office Hadley) under three emission scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) for three time periods (2011-30, 2046-65, 2080-2099) were investigated. LARS-WG software was used to generate daily climate parameters. The outputs of LARS-WG were used as inputs for APSIM crop simulation model to simulate growth and development of wheat under future climate change. According to the results obtained, the future minimum and maximum temperatures in Khuzestan will have increasing trend. Simulation results also showed that grain yield, biomass yield and leaf area index (LAI) substantially increased in all locations under future climate compared with the baseline period. Compared to the baseline, the highest wheat grain yield in the future would be obtained in Izeh and Ramhormoz (7691 and 6596 kg ha-1, respectively). Overall, it is concluded that over the coming decades, the wheat grain yield in Khuzestan province will have increasing trend largely due to an increase in LAI (which is highly correlated with grain yield). Other growth characteristics such as length of growing season had less impact on grain yield compared with the LAI under climate change in all study locations. Also, locations with cooler temperature in the baseline (i.e. Izeh) will produce higher grain yield in the future.


Main Subjects

  1. Aggarwal, P. K. & Kalra, N. (1994). Simulating the effect of climatic factors, genotype, water and nitrogen availability on productivity of wheat: II. Climatically potential yields and optimal management strategies. Field Crops Research, 38, 93-103.
  2. Ainsworth, E. A., Rogers, A., Nelson, R. & Long, S. P. (2004). What have we learned from 15 years of free-air CO2 Enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy properties and plant production to rising CO2. New Phytologist, 165, 351- 372.
  3. Attri, S. D. & Rathore, L. S. (2003). Simulation of impact of projected climate change on wheat in India. International Journal of Climatology, 23, 693-705.
  4. Deihimfard, R., Nassiri Mahallati, M. & Koocheki, A. (2015). Yield gap analysis in major wheat growing areas of Khorasan province, Iran, through crop modelling. Field Crops Research, 184, 28-38.
  5. Eyshi Rezaie, E. & Bannayan, M. (2012). Rainfed wheat yields under climate change in northeastern Iran. Meteorological Application,19, 346-354.
  6. Eyni Nargeseh, H., Deihimfard, R., Soufizadeh, S., Haghighat, M. & Nouri, O. (2014). Predicting the effects of climate change on irrigated wheat yield in Fars province using APSIM model. Electronic Journal of Crop Production, (Accepted for Publication). (in Farsi)
  7. Hoogenboom, G., Jones, J. W., Porter, C. H., Wilkens, P. W., Boote, K. J., Batchelor, W. D., Hunt, L. A. & Tsuji, G. Y. (2003). Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Version 4.0. Vol. 1: Overview. University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI.
  8. IPCC. (2014). Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L.White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, p. 1150.
  9. Koocheki, A., Nassiri, M., Sharifi, H. & Zand, E. (2001). Simulation of growth, phenology and production of Wheat cultivars in effect of climate change under Mashhad conditions. Journal of International Desert Research Center, 6(2), 117-127.
  10. Koocheki, A. & Nassiri, M. (2008). Impacts of climate change and CO2 concentration on wheat yield in Iran and adaptation strategies. Journal of Iranian Field Crops Research, 6(1), 139-153. (in Farsi)
  11. Lv, Z., Lio, X., Cao, W. & Zhu, Y. (2013). Climate change impacts on regional winter wheat production in main wheat production regions of China. Agricultural of Forest Meteorology, 171, 234-248. 
  12. Ludwig, F. & Asseng, S. (2006). Climate change impacts on wheat production in a Mediterranean environment in Western Australia. Agricultural System, 90, 159- 179.
  13. Luo, Q., Bellotti, W., Williams, M. & Bryan, B. (2005). Potential impact of climate change on wheat yield in South Australia. Agricultural Forest Meteorology, 132, 273-285.
  14. Manschadi, A., Soufizadeh, S. & Deihimfard, R. (2010). The role and important of crop modeling in improving crop production in Iran. In Proceeding of 11th Iranian Plant Breeding and Agronomy Congress. 14-17 Sep., Tehran, Iran, pp. 234-247.
  15. Nassiri, M., Koocheki, A., Kamali, G. A. & Shahandeh, H. (2006). Potential impact of climate change on rainfed wheat production in Iran. Archives of Agronomy and Soil Science, 52(1), 113-124.
  16. Nakicenovic, N. & Swart, R. (2000). Emissions scenarios. Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  17. Ozdogan, M. (2011). Modeling the impacts of climate change on wheat yields in Northwestern Turkey. Agriculture Ecosystem & Environment, 141, 1-12.
  18. Warren Wilson, J. (1967). Ecological data on dry-matter production by plants and plant communities. In: Bradley, E.F. & Denmead, O.T. (Ed), The collection and processing of field data (pp, 77– 123). Interscience, New York.
Volume 48, Issue 3 - Serial Number 3
December 2017
Pages 749-761
  • Receive Date: 04 November 2015
  • Revise Date: 13 December 2016
  • Accept Date: 22 January 2017
  • Publish Date: 22 November 2017