Simulating future wheat yield under climate change and technological advancement in Iran

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Agronomy, College of Plant Protection, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran

2 Department of Agrotechnology, College of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

3 Sugar Beet Research Department, Hamedan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education center, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organization (AREEO), Hamedan, Iran

10.22059/ijfcs.2025.396046.655144

Abstract

Climate change and technological development can affect agricultural productivity in the future. Accurately estimating the change in agricultural yield under the influence of climate and technology in the future is an effective approach for management strategies. The aim of this study was to simulate the effects of climate change, technological development, increased carbon dioxide and their combined effects on wheat yield in the future conditions in the country. Wheat yield for three 25-year periods in the future (2026-2050, 2051-2075 and 2076-2100) was simulated compared to the base year (1992-2022) under two scenarios of the CMIP6 model including SSP245 and SSP585. In general, the results of the combined effects of all three factors of climate change, technology, and carbon dioxide showed that in the first period (2026-2050) the combined effects of all factors on wheat yield in most regions were greater than in the base year, while over time and in the third period (2076-2100) the combined effects in all regions led to a decrease in wheat yield compared to the base year. According to the results, it seems that the development of technology and carbon dioxide in the first period and also in some cold regions of the country in the second period had the potential to compensate for the negative effects of climate change, while over time and in the third period the negative effects of climate change increased and led to a decrease in wheat yield, especially in tropical and arid regions.

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Iranian Journal of Field Crop Science
Volume 57, Issue 1
March 2023
Pages 13-30

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History

  • Receive Date: 01 June 2025
  • Revise Date: 23 September 2025
  • Accept Date: 18 October 2025
  • Publish Date: 21 March 2026

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